Big enterprises "volume" no "volume", small enterprises have no love.
As mentioned in the government work report of The State Council in 2024, in 2023, China's new energy vehicle production and sales will account for more than 60% of the world's total. The installed capacity of renewable energy power generation has historically exceeded that of thermal power, with more than half of the world's new installed capacity in the year. Exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic products increased by nearly 30%.
At present, in the aluminum processing industry, the "new three" has become popular, investment enthusiasm is high, and proposed projects under construction are springing up. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association, in 2022, the total annual output of aluminum profiles for new energy vehicles will be 750,000 tons, an increase of 127.3%; The total output of aluminum foil for batteries was 280,000 tons, an increase of 100%; The total output of photovoltaic aluminum profiles was 2.6 million tons, an increase of 30%. Yuefeng Aluminum did not obtain the latest data in 2023, but it is estimated that under the boom, the "new three" production will continue to grow.
It is undeniable that the domestic aluminum processing industry has shifted from the past incremental market to the stock market, and excess capacity has become a fact. In the past two years, the processing fees of aluminum plate and foil products, including the "new three kinds", have declined sharply across the board, and the processing fees of most products have fallen by about 30%. Under the pattern of overcapacity, the homogenization competition between enterprises is becoming increasingly fierce, the price war is everywhere, and the profit space of the entire industry is compressed. In order to compete for market share, price competition often falls into a vicious circle, which has a negative impact on the healthy development of the entire industry. Excessive homogenized competition will also lead to the lack of innovation and research and development strength of enterprises, so that the entire industry's technological progress and product quality improvement is limited. The metaphor of the image of the industry: big enterprises "volume" no "volume", small enterprises have no love.
"We will strengthen the overall layout and investment guidance of key industries to prevent overcapacity and low-level duplication of construction," the government work report for 2024 said. In the current stock market, the growth of the "new three" should maintain restraint, abandon acceleration, and focus on product quality and innovation ability, so as to enhance comprehensive competitive strength.
Yuefeng Aluminum believes that the healthy development of the "new three" industry should start from four aspects:
First, we will maintain restraint in growth. In the macroeconomic downturn environment, the "new three kinds" of investment is facing high enthusiasm and blind follow the trend, and the phenomenon of overcapacity is prominent. While promoting the development of the "new three types", governments and enterprises at all levels should assess market demand and capacity planning more carefully, give full play to market regulation mechanisms, and avoid ineffective allocation of resources and future price wars.
Second, we will strengthen the resilience and competitiveness of industrial and supply chains. From raw materials to downstream applications, the "new three" industry should focus on cultivating and strengthening advanced manufacturing clusters, extending chains and reinforcing chains, strengthening standards and quality support, and creating more "specialized and new" product brands with international influence.
The third is to aim at a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance. At present, there are many shortcomings in the "new three" industry, such as new energy vehicles with aluminum internal plate materials, power battery foil quality stability, yield and consistency need to be improved, renewable resources recycling capacity is insufficient. As the main body of innovation, the "new three" enterprises should deepen the combination of production, university and research, and use, and powerful enterprises should take the lead in major research tasks, integrate innovative forces of all parties, promote collaborative research on key core technologies, strengthen research on disruptive and cutting-edge technologies, promote the construction of generic technology platforms and pilot test and verification platforms, and accelerate the development of new quality productivity.
Fourth, we will expand the export of high-end products. Low-carbon emission reduction is a general trend of globalization, and the scale of overseas markets continues to expand, with huge potential for growth. It is necessary to actively expand overseas market share through various channels and strategies, especially under the promotion of the Internet and e-commerce, to expand the export of "new three" products in the way of cross-border e-commerce, and create a new engine of growth.
